An independent analysis by political observer Laughton Chandler has predicted a GOP winner of Tuesday's runoff election: Curtis Bostic.
The prediction was made by analyzing social media. According to the data, Bostic will win with more than 55 percent of the vote. His rival would earn more than 44 percent of the vote.
Bostic is a former Charleston County councilman, and is considered the underdog in his race against former Gov. Mark Sanford for the Republican nomination for the First Congressional District race. Tuesday is the runoff, and the winner will go on to face Democratic challenger Elizabeth Colbert Busch in the May 7 special election.
Chandler's metrics also predicted Bostic would win with more than 53 percent of the vote against Colbert Busch (46.25 percent) in May.
"I used several metrics, beyond mere likes/followers/subscribers, but also going into how many other people are independently engaged/discussing the particular candidate," Chandler wrote Patch. However, he would not disclose all of his metrics.
Chandler's metrics accurately predicted the first four finishers in the 16-candidate GOP primary March 19. The metrics also accurately predicted the two last-place finishers and the placing of Jeff King. However, the 9 candidates in between ranged widely from his predictions.
Here were Chandler's predictions from the Republcian primary, paired up with actual results (in order of prediction):Candidate Prediction Precentage Actual Vote Percentage Sanford 27.81 36.02 Bostic 18.45 13.32 Grooms 13.28 12.40 Turner 11.68 7.89 Nash 6.05 4.67 McCoy 4.52 1.61 Patrick 4.05 7.04 Hoffman 2.97 0.67 Kuhn 2.55 6.47 Limehouse 2.16 6.09 Blandford 1.66 0.36 Moffly 1.59 0.99 King 1.39 0.39 Larkin 1.08 0.73 Pinkston 0.50 0.29 Bryant 0.27 0.16
Edited 8:55 a.m. April 1 to correct how many placings were predicted correctly by Chandler.