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Social Media Analysis Predicts Bostic Win Tuesday

Independent analysis shows a 55-44 win for Curtis Bostic in Tuesday's South Carolina First Congressional District GOP runoff election against Mark Sanford.

An independent analysis by political observer Laughton Chandler has predicted a GOP winner of Tuesday's runoff election: Curtis Bostic.

The prediction was made by analyzing social media. According to the data, Bostic will win with more than 55 percent of the vote. His rival would earn more than 44 percent of the vote. 

Bostic is a former Charleston County councilman, and is considered the underdog in his race against former Gov. Mark Sanford for the Republican nomination for the First Congressional District race. Tuesday is the runoff, and the winner will go on to face Democratic challenger Elizabeth Colbert Busch in the May 7 special election. 

Chandler's metrics also predicted Bostic would win with more than 53 percent of the vote against Colbert Busch (46.25 percent) in May.

"I used several metrics, beyond mere likes/followers/subscribers, but also going into how many other people are independently engaged/discussing the particular candidate," Chandler wrote Patch. However, he would not disclose all of his metrics. 

Chandler's metrics accurately predicted the first four finishers in the 16-candidate GOP primary March 19. The metrics also accurately predicted the two last-place finishers and the placing of Jeff King. However, the 9 candidates in between ranged widely from his predictions. 

Here were Chandler's predictions from the Republcian primary, paired up with actual results (in order of prediction):

Candidate Prediction Precentage Actual Vote Percentage Sanford 27.81 36.02 Bostic 18.45 13.32 Grooms 13.28 12.40 Turner 11.68 7.89 Nash 6.05 4.67 McCoy 4.52 1.61 Patrick 4.05 7.04 Hoffman 2.97 0.67 Kuhn 2.55 6.47 Limehouse 2.16 6.09 Blandford 1.66 0.36 Moffly 1.59 0.99 King 1.39 0.39 Larkin 1.08 0.73 Pinkston 0.50 0.29 Bryant 0.27 0.16

Keep up with all of Patch's coverage of South Carolina politics by following us on Facebook HERE and Twitter HERE.

Edited 8:55 a.m. April 1 to correct how many placings were predicted correctly by Chandler. 

reg April 02, 2013 at 12:40 PM
and confidence levels require multiple factors, which this person never revealed to either of us, to compute. And he never revealed what factors were used to begin with. Add in the blatant distance between his percentile projections and those actually produced, as well as the wide distortion throughout the center of this candidate slate, and I'll hold my opinion of its (and its follower's) irrelevance.
Earl Capps April 03, 2013 at 08:10 PM
Being an "observer" makes him as much an expert on this stuff as watching a drive-by makes one a ballistic expert. That's about the only thing I can conclude from looking at how far off the mark he was. If you want qualified political commentary, talk with someone who actually has some experience. A long time ago, someone I knew with a lot of years in politics told me - "anyone will try to impress you by telling you they know, but over time you'll sometimes learn the smartest ones in the room will be the ones who admit they don't know". Looking at this reminds me of that sage advice.
Laughton Chandler April 04, 2013 at 05:17 PM
As I said more than once, this was not a prediction of the election, but simply showed relative strength of each campaign in social networking.
Ajay Jain May 04, 2013 at 08:06 PM
Watch the ONLY debate between Elizabeth Colbert Busch and Mark Sanford and decide who to vote for! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpPy5u7EszM
Nathan Roberson May 24, 2013 at 09:32 PM
It was kind of interesting that the Slate.com article calling this a botched prediction led me here. They squarely put the blame on Bostic's team's inability to jump on the social media bandwagon early. Kind of interesting reading in reverse order. http://www.mapquest.com/maps?state=SC

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